Archives by Tag 'trading'

Lessons from CUSX16 contract

By blogadmin - Last updated: Monday, October 13, 2014

As I’ve written earlier, I’m trying to get first-time readers (and the press)  to focus on the CUS Nov ’16 contract as a benchmark of market sentiment for the overall home price market.  A benefit of focusing on one contract … Read More

Reconciling falling SA prices with higher forward levels

By blogadmin - Last updated: Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Over the last few months headlines have simultaneously touted rising AND falling home prices (or at least indices).  As seen in the table below, nominal, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) home prices have continued to grind higher (albeit at ever slower implied … Read More

Less is more: Narrowing focus to CUS, NYM, LAX for early June

By blogadmin - Last updated: Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Since there has been so little trading in the first halves of the last 3-4 months I’d thought that we might have more luck with early-in-the-month trading by suggesting that trades focus on a smaller set of contracts.  As such, … Read More

Basics: OK, so you’re bearish. What to do besides selling your house?

By blogadmin - Last updated: Saturday, March 29, 2014

It seems that a growing numbers of commentators are becoming ever-louder in their bearish views.  Yet few give their readers any practical advice as to how to put this “knowledge” to work.  Are they suggesting that people sell their houses … Read More

Basics: InterCity Spreads -converted to relative % gains

By blogadmin - Last updated: Tuesday, March 11, 2014

I continue to believe that while traders may approach outright markets with some caution that they can be more aggressive when expressing views of relative performance.  That is, they may not have a precise view about how much the LAX … Read More

Feb CME Case Shiller recap

By blogadmin - Last updated: Monday, March 3, 2014

I’ve posted the February monthly recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller housing contracts to the Reports section (or one can access here).

A key impression when comparing information from Feb 28 versus Jan 31 (or Dec 31, … Read More

Case Shiller #’s vs Feb 2014 market (G14 CME contract)

By blogadmin - Last updated: Tuesday, February 25, 2014

While much of the press seemed to interpret today’s Case Shiller #’s as weaker, a comparison of the actual numbers versus the mid-market quotes for the expiring Feb 2014 (G14) contract suggests that the numbers were more bullish than expected.… Read More

Feb ’14/’15 Calendar Spreads by regions (If you blog it, they will come!)

By blogadmin - Last updated: Thursday, February 13, 2014

In what was a very gratifying (to me) set of actions, one (or some?) trader seems to have taken my comments on the Feb ’14/’15 calendar spread for the HCI contract (CUS 10-city index) Feb cycle calendar spreadsand expanded that approach into two-sided … Read More

Jan Recap posted

By blogadmin - Last updated: Monday, February 3, 2014

I posted a recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller (home price index) Futures for the month of January to the Reports section (or you can click here).

The highlights of the month include:

Read More

Jan 9 update

By blogadmin - Last updated: Monday, January 13, 2014

As I mentioned in the month-end summary, bid/ask spreads have compressed slightly since Dec. 31.  I posted a set of tables in the Reports section (click here) that shows the changes between Dec 31 and Jan 9.   The BOS, … Read More