Archives by Tag 'case-shiller index'

More post-Aug color. Surprises lead to large moves, trades

By blogadmin - Last updated: Wednesday, August 27, 2014

There were 12 trades yesterday.  All took place in X14 contracts across six regions (CUS, CHI, LAX, SDG, SFR and WDC).  As is typical for the limited trading in the CME housing contracts, the trades took place a) on a … Read More

CME market color post CS release

By blogadmin - Last updated: Tuesday, August 26, 2014

This morning’s Case Shiller numbers were generally weaker than the CME markets “expected” as the updated value of six indices were below the bid side of the CME market on the expiring Aug 2014 contract from the day before.  (Only … Read More

Pre-Aug Case Shiller release

By blogadmin - Last updated: Friday, August 22, 2014

Trading in the Aug ’14 (Q14) contract will wind down on Monday as we await the release of the June CS #’s on Tuesday Aug. 26th.   It has been a quiet summer market with only a few trades in the … Read More

Forward HPA – a review of Q14/Q15 spreads

By blogadmin - Last updated: Thursday, July 31, 2014

Forward CME contract prices are consistent with continued (albeit slowing) gains in Case Shiller index values for the next year.Aug 1-years

The table to the right shows the outright markets (bids, offers and mid-market levels) for the Q14 and Q15 (Aug … Read More

Recap of CME Contracts post July CS #’s

By blogadmin - Last updated: Wednesday, July 30, 2014

The July release of the Case Shiller numbers for May were slightly lower than “suggested” by quotes in the Aug 2014 contracts from the day before.  As such, CME quotes fell (but bid/ask spreads were much tighter) by the end … Read More

Recap of CME contracts post June release of Case Shiller #’s

By blogadmin - Last updated: Wednesday, June 25, 2014

The complacency of prices in the CME contracts got a mild shock yesterday with the June release of the April Case Shiller indices.  Prior to Tuesday there had been no trades in June (that I was aware of) and very … Read More

Links to discussions of regional home price forecasts

By blogadmin - Last updated: Tuesday, June 17, 2014

While the CUS-10 city index is the most actively traded contract, and the one that typically has the tightest bid/ask spreads, and while there is a long list of companies that analyze home price fundamentals and/or predict forward home prices … Read More

Basics – Understanding CUS10 values using new weights

By blogadmin - Last updated: Wednesday, May 28, 2014

I just got the answers that I was looking for in response to a reader’s question on how to tie out the CUS 10 index valuation using the recently announced new weights.  The net impact of this corrected approach- this … Read More

6 month perspective: Price changes Oct to April

By blogadmin - Last updated: Thursday, April 24, 2014

With the release of the April Case Shiller #’s almost upon us (Tuesday April 29th), with the increasingly bearish tilt in some housing forecasts, and with the (OK a personal)  perspective of having snow in my yard in both October … Read More

Shiller highlights graph of CME futures on CNBC

By blogadmin - Last updated: Tuesday, April 15, 2014

When Professor Robert Shiller was asked this morning, on CNBC, for his views on market expectations of forward home prices, he had a graph prepared to illustrate how the 2018 CUS contract prices were consistent with ~25% gains (over today’s … Read More