As a market maker I’ve tried to be (somewhat) agnostic on which way home prices might be headed. As such, I’ve stayed away from publishing research, or touting the views of others. That said, I’m human, and own houses so I’m susceptible to both bullish and bearish views. When I was a PM, I kept two files in my drawer -one labeled the “Bull” file, which I pulled out when I got too bearish, and a competing “Bear” file, which I read when I got to optimistic. I’ve tried to recreate that here on the NEWS page with links to a recent bullish and bearish articles.
To remain neutral, the links are to other people’s research. I encourage you to link to the articles and explore their sites. There seems to have been a better balance of bullish and bearish views over the last few weeks and I hope to keep the NEWS sections updated to reflect updates to this debate.
My (selfish) thought in fostering this debate is that, particularly with how (historically) tight the CUS bid/ask spreads are, that traders will make the leap and express their views with trades.
While the links can come from any source (and I’m open to posting links to articles of interest that people send me) I have to give a special shout out to the Patrick.net site. Patrick has consistently found a high quantity of relatively high quality views on the bearish side of the debate. I will likely not post too many bearish articles as his site has already done the job for us.
Now if someone would just create the go-to site for the bullish camp then I wouldn’t even have to link to those views.