Archive for December 2011
I’ve attached a set of graphs in the report section (and on the home page of this site) that shows me read of quotes for the CME Case-Shiller futures as of year-end 2011.
Spreads were tightest in the CUS markets, … Read More
I first started diligently follwing the CME Case-Shiller futures when I saw that the closing prices for December 31 2010 were going to be all over the map. Some contracts hadn’t had trades or even quote changes in months, and … Read More
Today’s WSJ article titled “Housing Imperils Job Gains” highlights the link between unemployment and home prices. As my title suggests one could argue that housing has impacted employment, but the argument could be made with the opposite causation (i.e. that … Read More
I’ve put a (higher quality) set of graphs in the Reports section that shows price quotes for the CME Case-Shiller futures contracts.
For the sake of comparison I’ve grouped the graphs, and scaled the right axes such that similar markets … Read More
Price quotes on the CME Case-Shiller futures drifted lower today in line with the decline in the Case-Shiller indices released this morning. The front Chicago contracts had the worst reaction of any region. The G13 (Feb 2013) offerings were lower … Read More
One of the challenges to trading these markets is when people either ask “how much have prices changed”, or “I thought that the bid/ask spreads were tighter”.
The issue in common to both questions is “since when”.
While I have … Read More
While one might try to infer forward home price expectations from CME Case-Shiller futures prices, the best source is the Zillow survey of home price expectations. This quarterly survey, which until recently had been managed by MacroMarkets, has over 100 … Read More
We had some eyeballs on this market this morning resuling in a couple of CUS trades and (as importantly?!?) tighter spreads in a number of contracts.
The last five trades have been in the CUS contract (K12, X12, X14, X15, … Read More
Every now and then I get a retail question that’s so obvious, that I kick myself for not posting it to a FAQs page before. The line of questioning runs- “OK, I like the idea of hedging in home futures, … Read More
As a market maker I’ve tried to be (somewhat) agnostic on which way home prices might be headed. As such, I’ve stayed away from publishing research, or touting the views of others. That said, I’m human, and own houses so … Read More
