Welcome to  this forum on home price derivatives.  I’m John Dolan, the independent market maker for the S&P CaseShiller (home price index) futures that are traded on the CME.    I would like to use this site to facilitate  greater discussion of, and better understanding by academics, regulators, policy makers, rating agencies, traders and all interested parties in housing transactionsJune 30 CUS
(e.g. buyers, sellers, lenders, MBA, NAR), in the markets for home price products, how they can be traded, and how to interpret observed market prices.  Please feel free to email me with questions or suggestions at johnhdolan@homepricefutures.com .  You can join the discussion on LinkedIn in the CME Case Shiller Home Price Futures group, and/or sign up for Twitter updates (mostly trade notices) at

My hope is that with greater awareness, more contributions (quotes) from other traders, and a willingness by traders and hedgers to dabble in these products, that better liquidity will evolve for futures on this critically important financial market.

These markets should be viewed as a community effort where opinions can be expressed and debated.  Contributions, whether outright orders, spread quotes, or ideas to either side of the debate would be appreciated.


BTW – For any who enjoy/value this work, I’m happy to take Bitcoin contributions at 1CYDofNN7XEcWEcCoG1FrBD41RDs3L3mSp


(See most recent blogs below)



Recap of CME contracts post June release of Case Shiller #’s

The complacency of prices in the CME contracts got a mild shock yesterday with the June release of the April Case Shiller indices.  Prior to Tuesday there had been no trades in June (that I was aware of) and very few meaningful price changes.  That changed when the S&P announcement of the Case Shiller numbers […]

Links to discussions of regional home price forecasts

While the CUS-10 city index is the most actively traded contract, and the one that typically has the tightest bid/ask spreads, and while there is a long list of companies that analyze home price fundamentals and/or predict forward home prices at both national levels and for a variety of regions (e.g. Zillow, Trulia, CoreLogic), there […]

Aiming at Q14: Zillow forecasts vs bid/ask

Since so much of the CME Case Shiller futures trading takes place in the front contract, readers should be aware of any tools to help them in their projections of near-forward Case Shiller values.  One of the best resources is the publicly available Zillow Real Estate Reserach blog http://www.zillow.com/research/april-2014-case-shiller-forecast-6997/ (link) where my sense is that their […]