Welcome to  this forum on home price derivatives.  I’m John Dolan, the independent market maker for the S&P CaseShiller (home price index) futures that are traded on the CME.    I would like to use this site to facilitate  greater discussion of, and better understanding by academics, regulators, policy makers, rating agencies, traders and all interested parties in housing transactionsJune 30 CUS
(e.g. buyers, sellers, lenders, MBA, NAR), in the markets for home price products, how they can be traded, and how to interpret observed market prices.  Please feel free to email me with questions or suggestions at johnhdolan@homepricefutures.com .  You can join the discussion on LinkedIn in the CME Case Shiller Home Price Futures group, and/or sign up for Twitter updates (mostly trade notices) at

My hope is that with greater awareness, more contributions (quotes) from other traders, and a willingness by traders and hedgers to dabble in these products, that better liquidity will evolve for futures on this critically important financial market.

These markets should be viewed as a community effort where opinions can be expressed and debated.  Contributions, whether outright orders, spread quotes, or ideas to either side of the debate would be appreciated.


BTW – For any who enjoy/value this work, I’m happy to take Bitcoin contributions at 1CYDofNN7XEcWEcCoG1FrBD41RDs3L3mSp


(See most recent blogs below)



Forward HPA – a review of Q14/Q15 spreads

Forward CME contract prices are consistent with continued (albeit slowing) gains in Case Shiller index values for the next year. The table to the right shows the outright markets (bids, offers and mid-market levels) for the Q14 and Q15 (Aug 2014 and Aug 2015) contracts for all 11 regions in the left-hand columns.  In addition […]

Recap of CME Contracts post July CS #’s

The July release of the Case Shiller numbers for May were slightly lower than “suggested” by quotes in the Aug 2014 contracts from the day before.  As such, CME quotes fell (but bid/ask spreads were much tighter) by the end of the day in all but one contract (LAV). There was only one trade in […]

Pre-July CS release

The Case-Shiller numbers for May will be released next Tuesday, July 29th.   While my sense is that there is an increasingly large chorus of  housing bears (e.g. weaker home sales, slower HPA, weak GDP, fears of rising interest rates), the August CME Case Shiller future contracts are priced for continued 1-2 % monthly increases […]